(MENAFN – The Conversation) Two former Soviet republics, Georgia and Moldova, are holding crucial elections this week that could impact their paths toward closer ties with the West amid increasing Russian influence and the ongoing Ukraine war.
The elections are under scrutiny from the EU and Moscow, with Russia attempting to sway the outcomes. A successful intervention could raise concerns in other ex-Soviet states and among Western nations.
Moldova’s electoral process
Moldovans voted in the first round of their presidential election this past Sunday, which included a referendum to add an EU membership aspiration to the Constitution. Pre-election polls indicated that pro-EU President Maia Sandu was likely to win, and the referendum would pass easily.
However, prior to the vote, Russia launched a strong propaganda campaign and made allegations of vote buying to undermine the election. Sandu won over 42% of the vote but will face a run-off on November 3, as she did not secure over 50%. Pro-Russian parties might back the second-place candidate to challenge her. The referendum barely passed, indicating significant Russian influence.
Georgia’s situation
On the same day as Moldova’s election, thousands of pro-EU supporters rallied in Tblisi, Georgia. The ruling Georgian Dream party, nominally pro-EU, has shifted towards pro-Russian policies, passing laws seen as anti-democratic.
The EU suspended Georgia’s accession process and withdrew €121 million in funding due to these backslides in democracy. Opposition parties now aim to unseat Georgian Dream, support the re-election of the pro-EU president, and revive EU integration efforts. Polls show about 80% of Georgians want EU membership, but this may not reflect in the election outcome.
Russia’s interference
Russia has a history of meddling in Georgia, having invaded in 2008 and supporting breakaway regions. Concerns are high about potential electoral fraud in the upcoming election, with reports of intimidation against opposition candidates and their supporters.
Why these elections are crucial
These elections in Moldova and Georgia are vital for preserving democratic rights in vulnerable regions. An outcome favoring pro-Russian candidates could lead to heightened repression of minorities and opponents, increased integration with Russia, and weakened support for Ukraine. While Moldova’s pro-EU results appear tenuous, the situation in Georgia poses greater risks for European relations. The stakes are extremely high for both nations.
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