Overview
The US Dollar’s strong performance is fading, despite recent high US CPI and PPI reports. The market has largely adjusted its expectations for rate cuts to align with the Fed’s guidance.
More strong US data is needed to prompt the market to expect an earlier pause in the Fed’s rate cuts, which could also support the Dollar further.
Long-term US yields are expected to rise, supporting the USD’s recent uptrend. Additional positive triggers for the Dollar would strengthen buyers’ positions. Key events in November include October data releases and the US election.
For CAD, the market anticipates a 48% chance of a 50 bps rate cut at the next meeting. Today’s Canadian CPI report may confirm this cut if the data is weak; stronger data might lead to a relief rally for the CAD.
USDCAD Technical Analysis – Daily
On the daily chart, USDCAD is above the key resistance at 1.3785. Sellers want the price to fall below this level, while buyers aim for further gains towards 1.3860.
USDCAD Technical Analysis – 4 Hour
The 4-hour chart shows a strong rally with no pullback, maintaining a steep upward trend. Buyers will likely continue to push for upside, while sellers look for a break below to target 1.36 support.
USDCAD Technical Analysis – 1 Hour
The 1-hour chart highlights recent price action and the steep trendline. Buyers will likely continue to support the trendline, while sellers will look for a break. The Canadian CPI today is a key focus; strong results could lead to a CAD rally.
Upcoming Events
This week has a light data schedule. Today’s Canadian CPI report is notable, along with US Retail Sales and Jobless Claims data on Thursday.
`
