Fundamental Overview
The bullish trend for the US Dollar is slowing down, even after surprising US CPI and PPI reports. The market has adjusted its expectations for rate cuts, aligning closely with the Fed’s outlook.
To boost the US Dollar further, we need stronger US data to encourage expectations of a pause in the Fed’s easing cycle. Key events to watch for in November include the October data, the FOMC policy decision, and the US elections.
Regarding the EUR, the ECB is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points tomorrow, with another cut anticipated in December and four more in 2025.
EURUSD Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe
On the daily chart, EURUSD is still declining, but momentum is slowing. Sellers may find better risk-reward around the 1.10 level, which coincides with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. Buyers will look for a breakout above 1.10 to target 1.12 next.
EURUSD Technical Analysis – 4 Hour Timeframe
The 4-hour chart shows a downward trendline supporting the current bearish momentum. Sellers may continue to use this trendline to position for more lows, while buyers are watching for a break above to aim for the 1.10 resistance.
EURUSD Technical Analysis – 1 Hour Timeframe
The 1-hour chart shows less movement, but aggressive buyers may enter if there’s a breakout above the recent lower high at 1.0895. The red lines indicate today’s average daily range.
Upcoming Catalysts
Tomorrow, we will see the ECB rate decision, US retail sales, and US jobless claims data.
