Fundamental Overview
The US Dollar’s strong performance is slowing down, despite recent higher-than-expected CPI and PPI reports. The market has aligned with the Fed’s rate cut projections, removing aggressive rate cut expectations.
More positive US data is needed for the market to consider an earlier pause in the Fed’s rate cuts, which would support the US Dollar further.
Looking ahead, US long-term yields are likely to rise, maintaining the USD’s upward trend, although additional bullish factors would strengthen buyer confidence.
Key upcoming events in November include the release of October data and the US elections.
As for the CAD, there’s a 48% chance of a 50 bps cut at the next meeting. Today’s Canadian CPI report will be critical—weak data may confirm the cut, while strong data could boost the CAD.
USDCAD Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe
On the daily chart, USDCAD is above key resistance at 1.3785. Sellers hope to push it below this level towards 1.36 support, while buyers anticipate more gains towards 1.3860.
USDCAD Technical Analysis – 4 Hour Timeframe
The 4-hour chart shows a strong upward trend without pullbacks. Buyers will likely use the steep trendline for support, while sellers will seek a break lower toward 1.36.
USDCAD Technical Analysis – 1 Hour Timeframe
The 1-hour chart clarifies recent movements and the steep trendline. Buyers will continue to rely on the trendline, while sellers will look for breaks. Today’s Canadian CPI could trigger a CAD rally if numbers are strong.
Upcoming Catalysts
This week has few economic releases, with Canadian CPI out today and US Retail Sales and Jobless Claims on Thursday.
