Fed's Kashkari
Fed’s Kashkari

Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari spoke in Buenos Aires, highlighting:

  • The economy is nearing its goal of 2% inflation.
  • It’s unclear how tight monetary policy currently is.
  • The job market is still strong.
  • Recent job data indicates the labor market isn’t weakening rapidly.
  • Modest rate cuts seem fitting going forward.
  • Future monetary policy will depend on economic data.

At the last Fed meeting, there was a 50 basis point cut, marking a shift toward adjusting rates in line with falling inflation. Since then, employment data has been better than expected, and while CPI rose slightly, PPI remained stable. Some Fed officials, including Kashkari, acknowledge the data but see the current funds rate as potentially restrictive regarding inflation.

The futures market indicates an 84% chance of a 25 basis point cut in November, with a 16% chance of no policy changes.