Fundamental
Overview

The USD got a boost as Fed Chair Powell reiterated that 50 bps of easing by year end remains the base case. The market’s probability for the Fed to cut by 50 bps in November fell from 51% to 40%.

Focus is on economic data. If improvement is seen, Treasury yields will drive USDCHF higher. If data weakens significantly, USDCHF will trend lower.

For the CHF, the SNB cut rates last week by 25 bps, bringing the policy rate to 1.00%. The central bank is prepared to intervene in currency markets as needed, signaling more rate cuts to follow.

USDCHF Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

USDCHF Technical Analysis

USDCHF Daily

On the daily chart, USDCHF remains stuck in the range between the 0.8555 resistance and the 0.8400 support. Market participants will continue trading within this range until a breakout occurs.

USDCHF Technical Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

USDCHF Technical Analysis

USDCHF 4 hour

On the 4 hour chart, the rangebound price action is evident. A major catalyst or breakout is needed for a sustained trend. US ISM Manufacturing PMI and US NFP this week will be crucial.

USDCHF Technical Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

USDCHF Technical Analysis

USDCHF 1 hour

On the 1 hour chart, a minor upward trendline suggests current bullish momentum. Buyers are likely to follow the trendline for further upside, while sellers will watch for price breaks to enter for a drop back into support. The red lines define the average daily range for today.

Upcoming Catalysts

Today we have the US ISM Manufacturing PMI and US Job Openings data. Tomorrow, the US ADP report. On Thursday, Swiss CPI, US Jobless Claims, and US ISM Services PMI. Finally, on Friday, the US NFP report.