Fundamental Overview
Gold has been reaching new highs recently, even without clear reasons for the rise. Real yields have also increased, indicating a potential pullback in gold prices before the Flash US PMIs release on Thursday. Strong data from the PMIs could cause a quick drop in gold prices.
Looking ahead, gold is expected to maintain its upward trend due to falling real yields amidst the Federal Reserve’s easing policies. Any pullbacks may occur when rate cut expectations change, but the overall uptrend should remain intact unless there is a shift in the Fed’s approach.
The upcoming US election could lead to a significant sell-off in gold if Trump wins, as it may lead to higher real yields based on growth expectations and fewer rate cuts.
Gold Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe
On the daily chart, gold has been able to reach new highs despite the lack of clear catalysts and rising real yields. Buyers should be cautious at this point, and it might be wise to wait for a break below the major trendline before considering a drop to the 2500 level.
Gold Technical Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe
The 4-hour chart shows a minor upward trendline that buyers are likely to use to push for new highs. Sellers will be watching for a break below this trendline to target a drop towards the previous all-time high at 2685.
Gold Technical Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe
On the 1-hour chart, a quick drop occurred recently, possibly due to pressure from rising Treasury yields. However, the market recovered and is back near all-time highs. While new highs are possible, the risk of buying at this point is high. The average daily range for today is highlighted in red.
Upcoming Catalysts
This week, there are few market-moving releases scheduled until later in the week. Thursday will see the release of the Flash US PMIs and US Jobless Claims figures, which could impact gold prices.
