By Jamie McGeever
(Reuters) – Here’s what to expect in Asian markets today.
Investors should prepare for a busy trading day as important economic data is released, including Japan’s inflation numbers and China’s GDP.
China will also report on September’s retail sales, house prices, industrial production, unemployment, and investment. The focus will be on the third quarter growth and whether it meets the 5.0% target set for 2024. Many analysts believe this target won’t be met, with growth estimated at 4.5% for Q3, down from 4.7% in Q2.
Forecasts for 2024 suggest growth will be 4.8%, which is below the government goal. Prognosis for 2025 appears slightly more optimistic after recent fiscal stimulus measures, but analysts remain cautious.
Chinese stocks have declined for the third day in a row, with Shanghai’s index down 15% from its peak on October 8, though still up 18% since stimulus announcements.
In Japan, inflation figures for September will be released, with a predicted drop in the core rate to 2.3% from 2.8% in August. This could influence the Bank of Japan’s cautious approach to tightening monetary policy.
Most economists expect no interest rate hike from the BOJ this year, though many see a possible increase by March. Swap traders anticipate a 15 basis points hike in January.
Globally, the market appears optimistic, bolstered by TSMC’s positive outlook and strong U.S. economic data, pushing the Dow to a new high. However, rising U.S. Treasury yields and a stronger dollar can negatively affect emerging markets, with the dollar climbing over the past two weeks.
Key developments to watch today:
- China GDP (Q3)
- Japan inflation (September)
(This story corrects earlier references to Malaysia GDP.)
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