Fundamental Overview
The US Dollar’s strength appears to be fading; GBPUSD didn’t hit new lows, despite strong US data. US Retail Sales exceeded expectations significantly, and Jobless Claims also showed improvement.
However, aggressive rate cuts are off the table, matching the Fed’s outlook. We need stronger US data, particularly with inflation, for the market to consider pausing the Fed’s easing cycle.
Key events to watch in November include October data, the FOMC policy meeting, and the US elections.
On the GBP side, the UK’s CPI report underperformed, leading to expectations of a 25 basis point cut in December. Strong UK Retail Sales this morning lifted the GBP.
GBPUSD Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe
On the daily chart, GBPUSD held above 1.30 and rebounded, with buyers positioned for a move towards 1.3265. Sellers, however, will look for a break below this level to push prices lower.
GBPUSD Technical Analysis – 4 Hour Timeframe
On the 4-hour chart, there was an upward spike after the UK retail sales data, but prices were rejected at the downward trendline. Buyers need to break above this trendline to aim for new highs, while sellers may continue to profit from it.
GBPUSD Technical Analysis – 1 Hour Timeframe
The 1-hour chart shows a bounce around a support zone at 1.3035, where a previous swing level and minor upward trendline coincide.
Buyers are likely to enter around this level, targeting a break above the major downward trendline, while sellers will look for a break lower to push prices down toward 1.29. The red line indicates today’s average daily range.
