Friday, October 18, 2024
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ECB cuts key rates by 25 bps as expected in October

Prior decisionDeposit facility rate 3.25% vs 3.25% expectedPrior 3.50%Main refinancing rate 3.40% vs 3.40% expectedPrior 3.65%Marginal lending facility 3.65%Prior 3.90%Incoming information shows that the disinflationary process is well on trackThe inflation outlook is also affected by recent downside surprises in indicators of economic activityInflation is expected to rise in the coming months, before declining to target in the course of next yearWill continue to follow a data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach to determining the appropriate level and duration of restrictionIt will be based on the assessment of the inflation outlook, incoming economic and financial dataNot pre-committing to a particular rate pathFull statementBesides the rate cut itself, there are no changes to the policy communication by the ECB. So, this makes it a rather straightforward one. It is only in the first paragraph that they alluded to "recent downside surprises" in economic data. That would be their rationale for acting in back-to-back months.Traders are still anticipating another rate cut in December with ~122 bps of rate cuts more until June next year. That would represent a 25 bps rate cut at each meeting until then.EUR/USD is sitting flattish still, keeping around 1.0865 and not much changed from the decision announcement. It's now over to Lagarde to bring it home. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

ECB AI Winter
  • Prior decision
  • Deposit facility rate: 3.25% (expected: 3.25%)
  • Prior: 3.50%
  • Main refinancing rate: 3.40% (expected: 3.40%)
  • Prior: 3.65%
  • Marginal lending facility: 3.65%
  • Prior: 3.90%
  • Disinflation is progressing well
  • Recent economic data shows unexpected downturns
  • Inflation may rise soon but is expected to decrease to target next year
  • The ECB will remain data-dependent in its rate decisions
  • Full statement

Aside from the rate cut, the ECB’s communication remains unchanged. They noted recent economic surprises as their reasoning for acting in consecutive months.

Traders expect another cut in December, with a total of ~122 bps in cuts by June next year, averaging a 25 bps cut at each meeting.

EUR/USD is stable around 1.0865, showing little change post-announcement. Now, it’s up to Lagarde for further guidance.

Viaurl
SourceForexlive
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